UK Lottery Odds Compared: Which Game Has the Best Odds?

Which UK lottery has the best odds?

Of the four main National Lottery draw games, Thunderball has the best odds of winning its top prize, at 1 in 8,060,598 per line. Lotto has the best odds of winning any prize, at about 1 in 4.9 per entry across its two rounds. Winning any prize is not the same as making a profit: the current Lotto Match 2 award is £1, below the £2 entry cost. Every one of these jackpots sits at odds of millions to one, which is why this guide also shows how they compare with capped-ticket competitions, where the number of tickets is published before you enter. For the exact current odds of any game, check the operator's official game procedures, linked in the sources below.

Four UK draw games compared

Published odds per entry into one scheduled draw, including both rounds for Lotto. Any-prize figures are rounded. This covers four games, not every UK game or scratchcard.

UK lottery games ranked by jackpot odds

1. Thunderball: 1 in 8,060,598 per line, for a smaller fixed top prize than the other three games.
2. Set For Life: 1 in 15,339,390 per line for the top prize, which is paid as a monthly sum rather than a lump sum.
3. Lotto: 1 in 22,528,738 per entry for the jackpot, with the best any-prize odds of the four games.
4. EuroMillions: 1 in 139,838,160 per line for the jackpot, the longest odds and usually the largest jackpots.

Why lottery odds are so long

Lottery odds come from the number of possible combinations you are matching. You pick several numbers from a large pool, and the jackpot goes to the one combination that matches the draw exactly. The more numbers in the pool, and the more you have to match, the more possible combinations there are, and the longer the odds become. Games that add extra numbers, such as the EuroMillions Lucky Stars, the Thunderball or the Life Ball, stretch the odds further still. It is also why buying a handful of extra lines barely moves your chances: when there are millions of possible combinations, holding a few of them still leaves you at very long odds.

The odds of winning any prize

Jackpot odds are not the whole story, because each game also has smaller prize tiers, and the chance of winning some prize is far better than the chance of winning the top prize. Any-prize odds combine all of those tiers. The catch is that most of those wins are small. The current Lotto entry takes part in two rounds, with prizes assessed separately in each round, and numbers cannot be combined across rounds. Its Match 2 award is £1, so an any-prize result need not recover the £2 entry cost. The headline, life-changing prizes stay at the very long odds the jackpot demands.

What is the best lottery to play in the UK?

There is no single best lottery, because each game answers a different question. If you care most about the chance of winning the top prize, Thunderball has the shortest odds of the four. If you want the largest possible jackpot, EuroMillions offers it at by far the longest odds. Set For Life pays its top prize as a regular monthly income, and Lotto gives the best chance of winning something, although often only a small amount. Whichever you choose, treat it as entertainment, decide your spending limit before you play, and remember that no game offers odds anywhere near those of a draw with a few hundred tickets.

Does a rollover change the odds?

A larger advertised jackpot changes the potential award, not the number combinations that a line must match. Buying more distinct lines covers more combinations and costs more. Repeating the same line in the same draw does not cover another combination, although it can affect your share of a prize if that line wins.

How capped competitions compare

A prize competition works differently. Instead of millions of possible combinations, a competition has a fixed, published number of tickets, often in the hundreds or low thousands. In a draw with one winning ticket selected from 500 valid tickets, one ticket has a 1 in 500 chance and five tickets have a 5 in 500 chance, or 1%. If those five tickets cost £2 each, the entry costs £10 and the chance of not winning is still 99%. A ticket cap is not the same as the final number of valid entries, so check the rules for how the pool is counted. The trade-off is that competition prizes are usually smaller than a rolling lottery jackpot, but the chance of winning is far higher, which is the idea behind low-odds competitions. If it is the cash that appeals, cash prize competitions publish the same fixed ticket totals for cash awards.

Lottery vs capped competition

How a national lottery jackpot differs from a single-winner, capped-ticket competition.

See your odds before you enter

The biggest difference is transparency about the field. On Odds Up, every competition displays the total ticket count and the number remaining before you enter, so you can work out your chance and your total cost with the real numbers in front of you. Our guide to online competitions in the UK explains how entering online works. Our guide to competitions with the best odds shows how to compare the price and prize as well as the denominator, and our round-up of the best competition websites in the UK compares eight sites on ticket information and draw method. Whatever you enter, decide a spending limit in advance: there is no pattern of past numbers that makes a combination more likely in an independent draw, and our responsible gaming page covers support and limits.