The headline numbers
The National Lottery Lotto jackpot requires matching 6 numbers from 59. The odds of doing this are approximately 1 in 45,057,474. By comparison, an online prize competition with 100 tickets gives you odds of 1 in 100 per ticket. That is a 450,000x difference. Even a large competition with 1,000 tickets still offers odds that are 45,000 times better than the lottery jackpot.
Odds comparison breakdown
1 in 45,057,474
1 in 139,838,160
1 in 15,339,390
1 in 1,000
1 in 200
1 in 50
But the prizes are different
This is the important nuance. The National Lottery jackpot can be millions of pounds. Online competitions typically offer prizes worth £50 to £5,000, including phones, laptops, cash, or experiences. You are not comparing like for like. What you are comparing is the realistic chance of actually winning something. Most lottery players never win a significant prize. Many competition entrants do.
Expected value: what your money actually buys
Expected value is a useful way to compare. It tells you, on average, what a single ticket is worth. For the National Lottery, a £2 ticket returns roughly £0.90 in expected value (the operator keeps the rest for good causes and running costs). For an online competition, the maths depends on the specific draw. A £2 ticket in a competition with 100 tickets for a £150 prize has an expected value of £1.50, which is significantly higher than the lottery.
Expected value example
Competition: 100 tickets at £2 each, prize worth £150. Expected value per ticket = £150 ÷ 100 = £1.50. That means for every £2 you spend, you get £1.50 in expected value, a 75% return. The National Lottery returns roughly 45%.
The psychology of odds
Humans are notoriously bad at understanding very large numbers. The difference between 1 in 1,000 and 1 in 45 million does not feel as dramatic as it actually is. One way to think about it: if you bought one lottery ticket every week, you would statistically need to play for over 866,000 years to expect a jackpot win. With a 100-ticket competition, you would statistically expect to win once every 2 years if you entered one per week.
Multiple tickets and improved odds
Both lotteries and competitions allow multiple entries. Buying 10 lottery tickets improves your odds to 10 in 45 million, which is still essentially zero. Buying 10 tickets in a 100-ticket competition gives you a 10% chance of winning. The impact of additional entries is dramatically more meaningful in smaller competitions.
Why we show odds upfront
At Odds Up, every competition displays the total ticket count before you enter. If a competition has 50 tickets, you know your odds are 1 in 50 per ticket. There are no hidden ticket pools, no last-minute additions, and no surprises. We believe you should always know your chances before you spend your money, or enter for free.
Responsible play reminder
Better odds do not guarantee a win. Prize competitions are still a form of entertainment, not an investment. Only spend what you can afford and never chase losses. If you feel your competition spending is becoming a problem, visit our Responsible Gaming page for support resources.